The future of Windows Mobile(Revisited)

[nightrider]

Hi!

Dear felipemdc: Did you try to upload a single program to a Windows Phone 7 device and ran it?

As you know, I don't have the expertise needed to do this test, but I'm curious...

Or... Does another person try this?

Greetings from São Paulo - Brazil

Ricardo

[felipemdc]

Dear felipemdc: Did you try to upload a single program to a Windows Phone 7 device and ran it?

No. To start with I don't have access to any Windows Phone 7. Where I work we have hundreds of Android phones, hundreds of Brew phones, a lot of Symbian, J2ME, Blackberry, iPhones, Windows Mobile 6. And many tablets. But zero WP 7 because it is completely incompatible with the tecnology that we use.

And anyway. Even if it worked, the resulting application would not be allowed into the Microsoft store.

From my experience everyone that was doing Windows Mobile 6 has migrated to Android. I'd say that Android is the real successor. You can also write Lazarus apps for Android, like it was possible for WM6.

WP 7 is only for .NET, not real programs.

And anyway, WP 7 is a massive fiasco. It has less than 1% marketshare which was gained at the cost of a huge debt and the near destruction of Nokia.

[marcov]

WP7 is mostly a transition horse to have something to sell till Windows 8 comes out, and test marketplace concepts and infrastructure.

The current Lumia hardware does not conform to the Windows 8 minimal specs, so upgrades to W8 for these ranges are not likely, or will be very different, very customized. The target is probably dead when W8 comes out in late fall.

[felipemdc]

The current Lumia hardware does not conform to the Windows 8 minimal specs, so upgrades to W8 for these ranges are not likely, or will be very different, very customized. The target is probably dead when W8 comes out in late fall.

But Windows 8 is a desktop/tablet OS. I would not expect it to ever work in a mobile phone. Or am I missing something here?

Of course MS could fork out a stripped down version of Windows 8 for phones, but there are no signs that this will happen. Of course both Windows 8 and WP 7 use metro, but only in the sense that both look superficially similar. The architectures of them are completely different.

[Phil]

The current Lumia hardware does not conform to the Windows 8 minimal specs, so upgrades to W8 for these ranges are not likely, or will be very different, very customized. The target is probably dead when W8 comes out in late fall.

But Windows 8 is a desktop/tablet OS. I would not expect it to ever work in a mobile phone. Or am I missing something here?

Of course MS could fork out a stripped down version of Windows 8 for phones, but there are no signs that this will happen. Of course both Windows 8 and WP 7 use metro, but only in the sense that both look superficially similar. The architectures of them are completely different.

That is indeed what's planned:

http://www.itwriting.com/blog/5946-windows-phone-8-and-windows-8-nearly-converged.html

I think a recompile in VS is all that's needed for most WinPhone7 apps to become WinPhone8 apps.

Thanks.

-Phil

[marcov]

The current Lumia hardware does not conform to the Windows 8 minimal specs, so upgrades to W8 for these ranges are not likely, or will be very different, very customized. The target is probably dead when W8 comes out in late fall.

But Windows 8 is a desktop/tablet OS. I would not expect it to ever work in a mobile phone. Or am I missing something here?

Why not? Old NT versions operated on way weaker hardware than topline mobile phones. They already have a tablet out,
and a tablet is basically a mobile phone with a bigger screen.

Of course "Windows 8" is way more than a subset of the kernel with a bit of metro sauce over it, but that is marketing.

But it is going to happen. Afaik the Lumia lines as we know them are exit in fall(source: The Register iirc).  Specially since the
sales are not exactly rosy. The bit about the Lumia lines was informed speculation (by the Register, not me), the Windows8 bit not.

Of course MS could fork out a stripped down version of Windows 8 for phones, but there are no signs that this will happen.

It has been well published, and known since last fall, not real surprises there. I'm slightly surprised that you don't know this, since you are in the mobile business. I'm only an observer from the sideline.

[felipemdc]

It has been well published, and known since last fall, not real surprises there. I'm slightly surprised that you don't know this, since you are in the mobile business. I'm only an observer from the sideline.

Yes, you are right. But my company does not support Windows Phone at all currently, as I previously said. So if you sum up complete lack of work interrested on the platform + complete lack of personal interrest in the platform and we can sum up to the conclusion that indeed I was not well informed about Windows Phone 8. I had just supposed it would be a slight upgrade from WP7.

In any case even if they started supporting native code right now I would not be interrested in the platform because it has a ridiculous 1% marketshare. It is something like discussing Bada ... yeah, sure ... great that they are making so much advance, it looks really promising... But how many people actually use that? Ah, only that ... I see ...

[Phil]

In any case even if they started supporting native code right now I would not be interrested in the platform because it has a ridiculous 1% marketshare.

I believe WinPhone8 _will_ support native code development (C/C++).

Also, never say never. Remember how Steve Ballmer famously dismissed the iPhone in January 2007:

Right now, well let’s take phones first Right now we’re selling millions and millions and millions of phones a year. Apple is selling zero phones a year. In six months they’ll have the most expensive phone by far ever in the marketplace and let’s see. You know what’s so special…? Let’s see how the competition goes.

(More fun quotes here:  http://www.asymco.com/2012/07/10/the-poetry-of-steve-ballmer/ )

However, at the current time, it does appear as though this one belongs to Apple and Samsung:

http://www.asymco.com/2012/07/16/from-bad-to-worse-and-from-good-to-great/

Could this change? Well, think back to what it was like 5-6 years ago when working with Mac sometimes seemed like a pointless exercise. Now many if not most mobile developers use Macs. So somewhere there will be people working with WinPhone OS (assuming MS doesn't end that experiment), waiting for their day in the sun.

Back in the present, a more likely scenario is that Samsung forks Android or even develops their own OS (currently Samsung is practically synonymous with Android) as a way to be more independent from Google and as a way to develop their own "ecosystem" the way Apple, Google, Amazon, MS have. As an exercise, substitute any of these names into "xxx Worldwide Developers Conference" - only Samsung doesn't make sense in that context.

A wildcard might be what happens when Nokia is sold off, perhaps in chunks. Does MS pick up the Lumia unit to keep WinPhone alive? Nokia is already shedding non-essential projects like Qt:

http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/business-it/nokia-closes-australian-development-office-20120803-23kc4.html

If you have some time to waste and want to amuse yourself, read Tomi Ahonen's extensive speculation here:

http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/08/lenovo-so-the-rumors-start-some-idle-speculation-about-nokia-buyers-and-reasons.html

Thanks.

-Phil